Thursday, 16 May 2013

MORE GOMBEEN POLITICS: PAY TO BE PRAISED!‏

An interesting article from Namawinelake

http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2013/05/15/nama-is-directly-paying-the-ratings-agency-which-gave-it-an-impressive-thumbs-up/

NAMA is “directly” paying the ratings agency which gave it an impressive thumbs-up

May 15, 2013 by namawinelake

“It’s hard to make a man understand something when his livelihood depends on him not understanding it” Upton Sinclair

How do ratings agencies make money? It may come as a surprise to some of you that ratings agencies get paid by companies to rate their debt and prospects. Which inevitably places ratings agencies in conflict between their desire to be retained to provide an assessment on one hand, and on the other the need to provide independent credible assessments to the market. But that’s how the business works, and the world’s biggest ratings agencies show no sign of withering away, despite the opprobrium heaped on them after failing to identify looming crises in American sub-prime mortgage lending and European bank debt.

The three main ratings agencies will be familiar to most of you – Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch. A fourth ratings agency, Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS) might not be a household name but it seems to get disproportionate reference by the NTMA when pointing to how healthy our prospects are. DBRS recently produced an assessment of NAMA, covered here. Whilst it undoubtedly contained useful and factual information, for example the three year accounts analysis, its opinions on NAMA were eyebrow raising in their positivity.

DBRS said of NAMA that it has assembled a “talented team” with “deep experience” and with “the necessary skills to extract the best possible return from the loans and underlying property assets”. DBRS went on to say “NAMA has developed a robust and efficient infrastructure that allows NAMA the flexibility to develop individual responses to each debtor that bests maximizes the returns “

We find out today that although NAMA picks up some of the costs of the ratings agencies generally who rate NAMA’s bonds, that NAMA itself directly pays only one of the ratings agencies and guess which one? Yes, it’s DBRS! How much does NAMA pay them for their handsome compliments? Alas, that is confidential.

Sunday, 12 May 2013

Is NAMA now planning to take over €14bn of assets currently in Permanent TSB?

An article in relation to PTSB.

http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2013/05/11/is-nama-now-planning-to-take-over-e14bn-of-assets-currently-in-permanent-tsb/

May 11, 2013 by namawinelake

Minister for Finance Michael Noonan refuses to tell us the book value of IBRC’s loans at the end of 2012 and he also refuses to tell us if any borrowers have yet refinanced their loans out of IBRC since that “bank” was placed in special liquidation on 6th February 2013. We DO know that the independent valuation of IBRC’s loanbook by PwC and UBS should be completed shortly and that loans with par values of over €10m will be offered to the market, and if the highest bid is in excess of the independent valuation, then the loan is sold and if not, it will go to NAMA. The transfer to NAMA was to have taken place in August 2013, but that date is likely to slip and may even be the start of 2014. In June 2012, IBRC had loans with a written-down book value of €16bn, so NAMA will be taking over up to €16bn of loans; that may have a significant impact on NAMA which itself had €22bn of book value loans at the end of 2012.

But NAMA might shortly be receiving a wodge of loans from another source: Permanent TSB.

Permanent TSB has created an internal business unit called the “Asset Management Unit” into which €14bn* of nominal value loans have been shoveled. “Nominal value” means par value, for example if PTSB loaned John €100,000 for his house and he currently owes €90,000 then the nominal value or par value is €90,000. John might have fallen into arrears and his house might be worth only €60,000 so PTSB might have made a provision of, say €20,000 as an estimate of the value which it won’t recover on the loan. So the written-down or book value of the loan might only be €70,000 – the par value of €90,000 less the provision for a loss of €20,000. We don’t know the written-down or book values of the €14bn of nominal value loans in PTSB’s AMU.

PTSBLendingDec12

At the end of 2012, PTSB had an overall total of €35bn of nominal value loans – see extract from the notes to the accounts above – so the AMU represents just under half of the PTSB loanbook. It is understood to mostly comprise commercial property loans (€2.2bn in total in PTSB, most of that is probably in the AMU) and loss-making tracker mortgages. We don’t know the impairment provision attaching to the AMU loans but the overall total provision in PTSB at the end of 2012 was only €3bn so the book value of the AMU will be €11bn-plus.

PTSB wants rid of its AMU because the uncertainty of what lies within, is dragging down the rest of the operation and preventing the bank from getting back on its own two feet. However, if the AMU is transferred to NAMA, then NAMA will only pay the current market value of the loans, and PTSB is likely to see a colossal additional loss, probably in the billions. NAMA will also end up managing problem mortgages, which is not what was originally envisaged for the agency.

We are likely to soon hear what is to happen to PTSB’s AMU.

*The €14bn was confirmed in a PQ this week here.

More than 30 Galway teachers sign up to Chinese language and culture course – Healy Eames

http://fidelmahealyeames.ie/2013/05/08/more-than-30-galway-teachers-sign-up-to-chinese-language-and-culture-course-%E2%80%93-healy-eames/

Fine Gael Galway West Senator, Fidelma Healy Eames, has today (Wednesday) welcomed confirmation that more than 30 teachers from primary and secondary schools in Galway have signed up to an introductory teacher-in-service course on Chinese language and culture.

The course, which has been facilitated by the Galway based China Ireland Relations Group, takes place in NUIG on Thursday May 9th. Educators from the Confucius Institute in UCC will conduct the course. “The interest in this course is a very positive endorsement of the potential that exists in Ireland-China relations. Educators and students alike in Galway are embracing the fact that there are huge benefits to learning about Chinese culture and language. As we move towards economic recovery, China should remain firmly in our sights. “This course for teachers will be useful in a whole range of ways, not least in preparation for the introduction of Chinese as a short course at Junior Cert level next year.

Having campaigned for the inclusion of Mandarin/Chinese on the Junior Cert syllabus, I am now actively involved in the roll-out of Chinese language and culture across eight Galway primary and second-level schools. The demand for greater provision is the challenge for all of us working in this area. “I hope the decision to include Chinese Language and Culture on the Junior Cert syllabus will have a considerable long-term impact. Parents and pupils in Galway are recognising that there is a public interest in promoting increased cultural, educational and trading links with China. “I hope the decision to include Chinese Language and Culture on the Junior Cert syllabus will have a considerable long-term impact. Parents and pupils in Galway are recognising that there is a public interest in promoting increased trading links with China.

'Ireland? It's a great country for a criminal’

Irish Nationalists have always maintained what would happens regarding immigration. Politicians of the various parties assured the Irish people that only a few immigrants would arrive. Immigration has always been an elephant in the room. Many have seen beyond the lies of the politicians, who encourage mass-immigration. Thought and Action holds the position that immigrants convicted of crime in Ireland should be deported and serve the prison in their country of origin.

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/ireland-its-a-great-country-for-a-criminal-29260026.html

Our lenient justice system continues to attract hordes of foreign criminals who rob and scam people and businesses of millions each year, writes Jim Cusack

JIM CUSACK – 12 MAY 2013

The murder recently of Lithuanian gangster Gintaras Zelvys in Rathcoole, Co Dublin, is a further signal of the invasion of Ireland by foreign criminals involved in everything from organised begging to hi-tech crime.

They are attracted here, gardai say, by what the criminals regard as a remarkably lenient justice system and the low risk of being caught.

Zelvys was regarded as a major criminal figure. He was released from prison a year ago after serving a seven-year term for extorting money from innocent Lithuanians in Monaghan and other counties. He was also sentenced to four months' imprisonment in 2008 for assaulting a female garda in north inner Dublin. Before coming here, he had escaped from prison in Lithuania where he was serving a jail term for rape.

Zelvys also ran a lucrative trade in smuggling mobile phones and other contraband into Portlaoise Prison where he had associations with Dublin criminals. At the time of his imprisonment in 2007, he was living in Celbridge in Co Kildare and driving an €85,000 Mercedes CLS. Gardai believe Zelvys was murdered by other Lithuania mafia here.

A remarkable insight into the view of Ireland as a destination for foreign criminals was discovered by gardai in Dublin last year after they had arrested three Nigerian nationals, members of an organised mobile phone theft and drug smuggling organisation. The gardai checked the phones of the three arrested and on one, they found a text that had been sent to an associate back in Nigeria. It read: "Come to Ireland. It is a virgin country. There is plenty of money to be made."

The theft and export of expensive smartphones is a multi-million industry here. Last month, gardai issued a report calling for people to record the IMEI numbers on their phones so that they could contact their providers and stop the phones from being used in Ireland. They revealed that 8,000 phones had been reported stolen in the first six months of last year.

However, this figure does not include the number of phones that were reported as lost, but were probably stolen.

The number of phones stolen is likely to be very much higher, running into tens of thousands. The Carphone Warehouse reported in 2011 that it had received an average of 380 reports of lost or stolen phones a week, or around 20,000 a year.

Gardai say there is theft of phones from pubs and cafes across the country on an industrial scale and that there is heavy involvement of foreign criminals.

"Young people are daft. They leave their phones on bars and tables and young women leave their handbags open. What do they expect? The robbers go from pubs to cafes, cleaning out the places. Most young people don't even know their phones have been robbed and only report the phone as lost," one garda said.

He added that Ireland had been a destination of choice for foreign criminals for years and gardai were seeing no let-up in the trend. "There are hordes of them coming here. Why wouldn't they? It's a great country for a criminal."

The murder of the Lithuanian at the industrial estate in west Dublin came two weeks after RTE's Prime Time Investigates shone a light on the industrial-scale theft of second-hand clothing from Irish charities' recycling banks around the country.

Prime Time also highlighted the established scam of leafleting householders with fake charity leaflets. Of the few cases against the clothing thieves that have gone to court, none has resulted in imprisonment and instead have involved only small fines and orders under the Probation Act.

Gardai contrast the lenient treatment of foreign criminals with the huge numbers of motorists, more than 400,000 a year, who are issued with on-the-spot fines. The courts are clogged up with people unwilling or unable to pay traffic fines.

The organised begging that the Government had supposedly moved to stop two years ago with the introduction of new anti-begging legislation has been thwarted by legal challenge all the way to the High Court. Young Roma women beggars who, gardai say, are often talented pickpockets are again back on the streets in large numbers.

The male members of the Roma gypsy gangs are often involved in a wide variety of theft from ATM skimming to shoplifting and stealing scrap metal. Recently, gardai arrested three Roma men who had been using foil-lined bags to counter security tags and steal clothing from stores in Dublin. The men were carrying clothing with an estimated value of €15,000. In their car was more clothing with a similar value and at a house gardai raided they found another €30,000 worth of stolen clothing.

Two weeks ago, gardai in Dublin put on display an Aladdin's cave cache of stolen mobile phones, jewellery, clothing and other goods found in a raid on a house in north Dublin.

In the mid-range of organised foreign gangs are those targeting plant machinery, cars and marine equipment. A highly organised gang believed to include ex-soldiers from the Baltic states has been scouring harbours and marinas and stealing marine equipment for the past four years, taking everything portable from petrol containers to outboard motors and inflatable boats. Scouts posing as tourists visit the harbours and, gardai believe, log the location on GPS which they then hand over to teams of men with engineering experience who steal the equipment.

The equipment is collected and exported for sale in eastern Europe's growing, and unregulated, market for leisure boating.

Other gangs are involved in the theft and breaking of high-value cars. These gangs have electronic equipment that copies signals from keys allowing them to open the cars. They then use GSM/mobile phone jammers to block thesatellite tracking signal as they drive to the yards where mechanics disassemble the cars. It is believed these gangs are part of a major network involved in exporting damaged cars from Britain to eastern Europe, where they are repaired and returned for sale in the UK.

Vietnamese and Chinese criminals are behind the network of cannabis grow-houses across the country, which have been the subject of much publicity in recent years. They choose Ireland, gardai say, specifically because our automatic right to bail means that being caught is merely an expense. The men and women tending the plants are usually in debt to gangs and are effectively slaves and regarded as disposable by the gangs.

Eastern European gangs also introduced technology new to Ireland to help them rob businesses across the country. Three years ago, gardai detected them also using mobile phone jammers to by-pass alarm systems that use land and mobile (GSM) communications to alert alarm-monitoring stations. The jammers, available now on the internet, have effectively made Ireland's 400,000 alarm systems that rely on GSM signalling, redundant.

One gang of ex-military from Kosovo and Albania was detected by gardai after an 18-month spree of robberies in the south and south-east of the country in 2010. They were using jammers to block alarm signals in dozens of late-night robberies. Gangs from the Baltic states, also ex-military, were using the same techniques to rob businesses around the country.

These forms of robberies became so common that insurance companies have been advising customers they must change their alarms to make them less vulnerable.

One Dublin security firm decided the threat from GSM blockers was growing to the extent that it has switched back to a new version of old-fashioned radio signals.

Derek Mooney, director of Action Security Services in Dublin, said the arrival and spread of the GSM blockers led his firm to introduce long-range radio signals in its alarm systems. He said: "It was eastern Europeans who brought the jammers here, the first detected in 2011. We realised that there was a need to counter that. The vast majority, 95 or 96 per cent of alarms in Ireland, use GSM and they are all vulnerable.

"It was very sophisticated eastern European gangs who began using them but our own robbers have cottoned on and they are now being used all round the country. Insurance firms are now directing big retail companies and shopping centres to upgrade."

The Minister for Justice has the authority to deport people, including EU citizens who are deemed to "act in such a way as to be a danger to public order or security". However, having a criminal record is not, in itself, grounds to be asked to leave.

However, gardai and legal sources say there seems to be relatively little effort aimed at detecting and deporting serious foreign criminals. Most of the people facing deportation who are appealing their cases to the High Court have no known criminal convictions here or abroad.

Cases before the Immigration Court in the past two years have included an Ahmadi Muslim woman from Pakistan with a Master's degree in economics and a young Nigerian woman studying accountancy in Dublin, who was deemed to have breached her asylum conditions because she had a part-time job.

The sources say that the "professional" foreign criminals simply continue committing offences after being caught and released on bail and only leave when, often after years of delays in court, they finally face imprisonment. At that point, they move to another EU country and are then free to return here when they feel safe to do so, usually with a new identity.

Irish Independent

Saturday, 11 May 2013

Why the Government Spin on Property Tax ?

An article here from DDI.

http://directdemocracyireland.ie/why-the-government-spin-on-property-tax/

Posted on May 9, 2013 by Admin D

In yesterday’s Irish Independent article it is revealed that registration for the government’s Local Property Tax is currently between 25 and 30% .  This is despite the passing of the deadline for returning the LPT declaration form.

It is still quite difficult to get an accurate handle on the real percentage because no two statements can agree on exactly how many households there are in Ireland.  Figures range from 1.6 to 1.8 million.  Whatever the true figure, it is still a dreadful return and a strong message from the people to the government.  Indeed one year on, a third of the population have still not registered for the original €100 Household charge.

The government naturally prefer the lower figure to make the percentage registered figure look higher.  Of course there is a good reason for this, and it is the same reason we saw the debate in the media last year disputing the numbers who registered for Household charge.  Then the government engaged in a mass media offensive to convince the public that over 50% of the home owners had registered by the deadline, and we are seeing the start of that campaign again.

You see the government continually cites its ‘mandate’ to make these decisions, based on the general election vote (though the fact that FG run the entire country based on 25% of the electorate voting for them is another discussion).  However, if more than 50% of the country simply does not register for the government”s new tax, that mandate reasoning evaporates.  The government would then be forced to resign, although the history of politicians in Ireland resigning is not an honourable one.

So we can see the thinking behind the wall to wall media coverage.  After last year’s problems the government are pulling out all the big guns this time.  The Revenue have been called in and have had their ‘information’ campaign all over the media for many weeks now.  In reality the Revenue’s message has been one of threat and really nothing else.  They refer to people who don’t register as ‘offenders’ and use heavily loaded words to instill fear in normal honest people, and a sense of being unceasingly hunted as criminals.  Indeed the article quotes the government on this theme by saying “Government sources say the rise in household charge payments is down to the fear of Revenue being on their trail”

There are still 3 weeks remaining for people to register for the tax online of course and we predict that in that time the media spin machine and the numbers game will hot up again.  Undoubtedly the government will claim over 50% compliance (at the lower level figures) before the 28th May deadline.  We will of course be seeking our own independent figures as, under the circumstances, it would be foolish to trust a government who has everything to lose to report the figures correctly.

DDI’s stance on this issue is clear.  We are well aware that the government has slashed hundreds of millions from local government budgets over the last 2 years, and have diverted that money to paying unsecured bondholders against the wishes of the people.  This new tax is simply filling that hole.  For that reason we do not agree with this tax and propose that the two issues must be solved together as they are simple cause and effect, and both have been imposed without any recourse to the will of the people.

There is more than one way to stop an unlawful tax of course.  The tax can be, and is being challenged in the courts over the last few months by the first man to be brought to court for not making a declaration This test case was reported in the Sunday Mirror on 5th May 2013.  The established parties naturally all refute that this is even possible, and we can understand why they would say that.  The oddity though is that the minority parties that get themselves directly involved in the campaign protests against the tax seem to be actively coming out against the legal route too.  A route which could offer a definitive and binding legal determination on the government.  Why these parties choose to ignore the courts is a question only they can answer especially as it is common knowledge that they ‘had’ a very large legal fund collected by tax protestors over the last year.  If one were a skeptic one might wonder if they are just another form of controlled opposition to try to limit the effectiveness of the campaign.

In addendum, today at the Public Accounts Committee it has also been revealed that the rate of property tax can be increased by 15% at the start of 2015.  This is despite the government having previously said the tax could not be increased for 3 years.  The revenue also disagree with the government’s original line and say that it was always in the legislation that it could be increased within the first 3 years. Indeed in 2016 the councils will be able to increase it year on year at their own discretion.

We all remember how Enda Kenny’s government sold the Household Charge with spin like  ‘It’s only €2 a week’ or ‘it’s less than a pint a week’.  Well now in 2013 that has risen to an average of €8 per week. In 2015 that will be €9 per week, and in 2016 it is going to be over €10 per week and forever rising to the levels we see in the UK where bills of over €60 per week (€3,000 p.a. equivalent average home) are common.  Have no doubt this is the goal.  Like the boy with the finger in the dyke, if you take out the stopper and let that water trickle through pretty soon the dyke is gone and you will be flooded.